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Minneapolis Super Bowl Economic Impact
Minneapolis - Increasingly, sponsors, partners, citizens, businesses, & government authorities ask the question, “is it worth it?”
• What are total hosting costs? Operations? Capital? Displacement?
• How will these funds be raised? Private or public?
• And how will local businesses, citizens, and governments benefit?
• Are there ongoing benefit streams created or is it once and done?
Caught Between a Rock & Hard Place
Meanwhile, past estimates have been criticized as extremely overinflated, inaccurate, even purposely misrepresented…
• Gross SB spending is interchanged with economic impact
• Resident spending, game ticket sales, air transportation are included
• Displaced regular tourism spending is not subtracted
• NFL and other organization exemptions are not subtracted
• “Softer” benefits are questionably quantified and included –e.g. unearned media, halo effects on future meeting bookings, city brand
• Inappropriate and inflated “multipliers” are used to translate spending into jobs, paid wages, tax receipts, and contributions to local GDP
• Purposely conservative (If in doubt, leave it out…) : Only non-resident local spending, local operations, broadcast, advertising, and T&E spending. Avoid
double counting and outside reimbursed costs/ spending
• Use actual spending rather than budgeted estimates wherever possible
• Triangulate: always sanity check “demand” side estimates with supply side capacity figures (e.g. # hotel rooms, rental car inventory, air lift, etc.)
• Check estimates against published benchmarks (e.g. S&L tax collections)
• Treat softer benefits such as media exposure, halo effects as “below the line items”. Calculate it, yes, but leave it out of the headline numbers
• Displaced Tourism: Estimate the normal level of tourism activity (leisure & business) for the late-Jan/early-Feb period, assume 100% displacement, and
subtract it from the “gross” impact
• Highlight strengths & weaknesses in data sources, models, methodology
1. Estimate SBLII-initiated game attendee/visitor spending
2. Gather/estimate SBLII MSP game, event & broadcast operations spending
3. Translate incremental spending into economic impact for MSP & MN
4. Calculate SBLII-initiated state & local taxes
5. Estimate displaced tourism impact & subtract it from gross SBLII impact
6. Derive and monetize “softer” benefits of SBLII –value of media,
convention/meetings lift, return visitation, etc.